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Diffusion of Innovations

The adoption of innovation can be understood through the Diffusion of Innovation Theory by Everett Rogers, which identifies five key groups: Innovators (2.5%), who eagerly await new products; Early Adopters (13.5%), who enjoy early usage as products mature; Early Majority (34%), embracing mainstream innovations; Late Majority (34%), cautious adopters waiting for price drops and reliability; and Laggards (16%), the most reluctant group that adopts last. These cohorts create a bell curve when mapped over time, leading to an S-curve representing the speed of adoption stages: slow growth during initial trials, rapid exponential growth with successful innovations like Uber or Airbnb, followed by slowing growth and eventual plateauing in popularity seen in technologies such as analog photography.