The author describes their experience at a protest on Bolotnaya Square in Moscow in 2012, where they witnessed police violence and the beginning of a crackdown on protesters. They reflect on the differences in how peaceful protests are effective in some countries but not in others, and question the nature of power and authority.

The Effectiveness of Nonviolent Protests Nonviolent protests have been successful in achieving their goals, as seen in the American civil rights movement where Martin Luther King Jr. led peaceful demonstrations against segregation and discrimination, resulting in the desegregation of schools and public transportation. The use of nonviolence can also gain support from allies and the media, which can help to achieve the goals of the protest.

The Importance of Demonstrative Noncompliance While it is important to follow just laws, Martin Luther King Jr. believed that it is also a moral duty to disobey unjust laws. Demonstrative noncompliance, such as accepting punishment to bring attention to the injustice, can help to awaken society to the issue. King's letter from Birmingham Jail was addressed to the white clergy who supported desegregation but criticized King's methods, highlighting the need for moderate allies to take action.

The Role of Federal Intervention in Achieving Change Despite the Supreme Court's ruling against segregation in schools and public transportation, many Southern states ignored the decision. Nonviolent protests, such as the Freedom Rides and sit-ins, gained national attention and support, but it was federal intervention, such as the use of National Guard troops and the Civil Rights Act of 1964, that ultimately led to the desegregation of Southern states. The success of nonviolent protests relied on the support of allies and the media, as well as the willingness of the federal government to intervene.

From dictatorship to democracy The article discusses the nonviolent protest methods outlined in Gene Sharp's book "From Dictatorship to Democracy," which includes techniques such as strikes, sit-ins, and boycotts. The author emphasizes the importance of peaceful protest and the need for protesters to have the ability to cause damage without attacking people.

The success of Euromaidan and Russian protests The chapter compares the success of the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine, which were supported by a wide range of people and institutions, to the Russian protests in 2011, which lacked widespread support and failed to achieve their goals. The author notes that even though the Russian protests were initially small, they grew in size and eventually led to some changes in leadership.

From Dictatorship to Dictatorship Parliamentarians failed to justify their fight for their voices, as seen in the January 12th protests. The crackdown on the Bolotnaya protest on May 6th, 2012, was the final nail in the coffin for the protest movement.

Why Some Protests Succeed and Others Fail The Russian opposition failed to reach a wide audience due to the lack of major opposition media outlets. In contrast, the Belarusian opposition had the support of the majority of the population but lacked organization and resources. The success of a protest depends on a broad range of support, including major media outlets, businesses, unions, and student organizations, and the ability to organize effectively.

The book "The Dictator's Handbook" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith explains how to maintain power as a dictator by focusing on the three groups that make up the selectorate the nominal selectorate, the influential selectorate, and the winning coalition. The size of the winning coalition is crucial for a dictator's stability, and it can be controlled by providing public goods to the public and using targeted rewards to maintain loyalty.

Autoritarnaya Rossiya Russia's abundance of natural resources, such as oil, gas, and diamonds, has been both a blessing and a curse. The country's authoritarian government has been able to maintain power by controlling the economy and using targeted rewards to maintain loyalty, but this has also led to corruption and a lack of political freedom.

The author discusses the state of democracy in post-Soviet countries, noting that stable democracies are rare and that political regimes are often unstable. He divides countries into two groups those with stable autocracies (such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan) and those with relatively broad ruling coalitions that are often subject to attempts to reduce their size and usurp power (such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Armenia).

The Evolution of Electoral Autocracy in Russia The author describes how Russia's ruling coalition was unstable in the 1990s, with various parties, oligarchs, governors, and ministers vying for power. Putin created a party of power, United Russia, and won elections in 1999 and

He also consolidated control over the media and oligarchs, and passed laws to restrict political parties and regional autonomy. The author argues that Putin's electoral autocracy became a personalist autocracy in his second term, with the creation of a power vertical and the suppression of protests.

Lukashenko's Belarus The author compares Lukashenko's Belarus to Putin's Russia, noting that Belarus lacks significant natural resources and has a smaller ruling coalition. However, Lukashenko consolidated power by eliminating his systemic opponents and cracking down on civil society. The author notes that Lukashenko's consolidation of power was aided by the legacy of the Soviet Union, which left a consolidated security apparatus.

Lessons from the 2000s The author argues that the foundations of Russia's current political system were laid in the 2000s, with the consolidation of power by Putin and the suppression of opposition. He notes that protests in the 2000s were episodic and largely led by marginalized groups, and that the rise of oil prices helped to stabilize the autocracy. The author concludes that events in the 2010s were the result of long-term trends, and that the lack of control over external factors such as global oil prices means that the future of Russia's political system is uncertain.

Damoklova Kuvalda The article discusses the political situation in Russia, including the limitations of mass protests and the importance of state bureaucracy. It also explores the challenges of transitioning from an authoritarian regime and the potential for a liberal consensus in the future.

Consolidation of Power The article highlights the difficulty of organizing effective protests in Russia due to the government's ability to suppress dissent. It also emphasizes the importance of state bureaucracy and the limitations of grassroots movements in achieving political change.

Lessons from History The article draws parallels between the current political situation in Russia and past authoritarian regimes, such as Saddam Hussein's Iraq. It argues that even a significant defeat for an autocrat does not necessarily mean a loss of power, and that a transition to a new form of government requires a consensus among the ruling elite. The article concludes with a discussion of the potential for a liberal consensus in Russia, but acknowledges the challenges of achieving this goal.