What the wars of the future will be like. The technologies of tomorrow

War Without Declarations and Tech Acceleration World War II is dated to 1 September 1939, yet it had begun earlier; the next world war will be named after it starts, and may already be unfolding in proxy form. If escalation pairs great powers directly, decisions will come faster and losses may exceed 1945. War reliably accelerates technology; the coming 10–15 years will reshape warfare more than the last decade. Some ideas that seem fantastic are feasible, while other “promising” technologies have little to do with reality.

Drone Revolution Rewrites Warfare Humans already fight drones, and drones increasingly fight each other. Machines will redefine the battlefield and steadily push people off it. The explosion of UAVs has grown into a distinct branch with specialized units, and their autonomy is rising.

Every Unit Runs Organic Drones Armies saturate from top to bottom with UAVs: a light quadcopter at squad or even fireteam level, increasingly capable platforms higher up. Roles span reconnaissance for infantry and commanders, target designation for armor, and persistent overwatch. The zoo stretches from tiny “bird” drones to large reconnaissance and strike UAVs reaching hundreds or thousands of kilometers.

Armor-Drone Teaming Redefines Combined Arms Twenty-first‑century hunter‑killers pair armored vehicles with tethered or escorting copters that scout and cue fires. Vehicles carry organic recon drones and nests for interceptors that swat enemy UAVs. This teaming becomes standard kit rather than an add‑on.

Unmanned Logistics, Medevac, and Autonomous Mining Last‑mile logistics shifts to UAVs that slip into contested zones with water, food, and ammunition, keeping even isolated defenders supplied. Heavy UAVs are already trialed for casualty evacuation, reviving a WWII concept at a safer, faster level. Sappers lay and clear minefields remotely, dropping charges from the air; fully autonomous systems that emplace and lift mines without operators are near.

The Deepening Kill Zone and Underground Command Five to ten kilometers behind contact is no rear; twenty isn’t safe either, and UAV range will push the death zone tens and then hundreds of kilometers deep. Command posts retreat and camouflage, while commanders learn partisan habits—hiding in rural terrain or among civilian structures. Logistics shifts to civilian vehicles with higher survival odds, and staffs withdraw vertically as precision munitions can be put through doors and ventilation shafts.

Tunnels, Ambushes, and the October 7 Example Subterranean networks blunt overwhelming firepower: Gaza’s tunnels, damaged yet functional, remain hard to eradicate. Tunnel‑hunting drones—small platforms with cameras, thermal sensors, and weapons—naturally follow as countermeasures. On October 7, drones disabled Israel’s remote gun turrets, ground fighters breached a base, monitors went dark, and turret operators were captured—an engagement defined by remotely controlled systems.

Counter‑UAV Corridors and Dispersed Sustainment Roads grow nets and guarded segments backed by autonomous turrets with machine guns, shotguns, or microwave weapons. Massing forces becomes both pointless and deadly, so movements fragment into small, widely dispersed groups. Ammunition depots devolve into many tiny hideouts, light vehicles dominate, and heavy UAVs shuttle assault teams and their heavy weapons.

Micro‑Units and Data‑Centric Soldiering The infantry line as attack formation is suicide; assaults shrink to teams of two to four, while tanks pop out, fire, and vanish—or even shoot from defilade. Each fighter must master trauma care, explosives and mines, target designation, and accurate marksmanship, often with no better air defense than spraying the sky. Every soldier also becomes a data operator.

Robotic Assault Ecosystems Minimize Human Exposure FPV and bomber drones soften defenses, assault drones deliver fire and seize ground, high‑flying scouts feed picture, relays hold the net, supply UAVs bring ammo and batteries, and medevac and repair nodes trail close behind. Mothership drones drop reinforcements, while humans enter only when indispensable—sorting edge cases, clearing rooms, and fortifying points. Time in the kill zone is minimized, and the few people involved need special‑operations‑level skills.

AI Overtakes Nukes as the Decisive Edge Advanced AI confers unprecedented military advantage, enabling weapons others cannot build and radically boosting intelligence, logistics, and production. A tech‑superior force, as in June 2025 when Israel dismantled Iran, can win cleanly; with AI, even biothreat blackmail becomes technically plausible when paired with a self‑protecting vaccine. Computational biology is surging, moving scenarios once deemed science fiction into reach.

Scarce Talent, GPU Empires, and Taiwan’s Leverage AI talent is rare and wildly expensive, with poaching deals soaring from millions to nine‑figure packages and beyond. Startups and giants pour tens to hundreds of billions into GPU fleets—XAI buying roughly 230,000 GPUs with plans for 550,000 and millions more, a parallel $500B infrastructure effort by OpenAI partners, and NVIDIA’s valuation swelling to $4T. China struggles to match on Huawei’s chips, and only the United States with Taiwan and China can truly build the hardware—hence open talk in Washington of denying or even destroying Taiwanese fabs in war.

Power, Data, and the Self‑Amplifying Model Cycle Data centers already draw about 3% of U.S. electricity and could exceed 10%, driving deregulation of coal, nuclear restarts, and new reactors. Models are trained, not programmed, and teams now write much of their code with AI—creating a self‑reinforcing loop that accelerates leaders. For laggards under sanctions, priorities include making AI a national focus, accepting reliance on China for chips, recruiting top students, using synthetic data, distributing training, and seeking more power‑efficient architectures.

Transparency Breeds a New Positional Stalemate UAV saturation and battlefield transparency make concentrating fire and shock exceedingly difficult, slowing attacks and speeding defense. Even unexpected breaches are quickly sealed, and ejecting an enemy from one point means little if reinforcements can’t enter and hold. Breaking a front demands neutralizing many targets across tens of kilometers.

Algorithms Fight Chains, Not Units When two AI‑steered systems clash, the winner disrupts the opponent’s whole chain—from drone delivery to strike execution—by better prioritization and faster adaptation. Command architectures must be flexible and decentralized, with ‘electronic officers’ advising at every level and assuming control if staffs are hit. Air defense is the first default hand‑off: reaction times shrink to seconds, and systems like Iron Dome already classify threats, set priorities, and fire autonomously.

Autonomous Ambushes, Cauldrons, and Drone Sieges Drone ambushes become fully automated as smart mines are air‑delivered, lie in wait, track targets, and strike the best shot. ‘Cauldrons’ arise without physical encirclement: roads tens of kilometers away fall under remote control, and escape is only on foot—if at all. Urban war turns into a collision of overlapping deep‑fire ‘clouds’ that paralyze movement and logistics.

Swarms at Scale and the Targeting Liability Problem One operator will soon shepherd entire swarms; releasing a thousand FPVs for free hunt is already technically possible and devastating even with high losses, if drones are available. AI will permeate from rifleman to general staff, raising hard questions of responsibility when mistakes kill civilians and how to embed fail‑safes. In Gaza, an Israeli system reportedly recommends targets from massive data, leaving humans to approve—a method that can beat frightened, error‑prone troops in chaotic fights.

Mass Still Matters More Than Myths The 1991 Gulf War bred a myth of tiny, high‑tech armies, but October 2023 showed thin lines collapse: Hamas burst through, and Israel rushed 300,000 mobilized troops to stabilize the front. The U.S. and its allies, despite exquisite technology, could not sustain Afghanistan; two decades yielded nothing durable. A small elite cannot hold ground, a pure meat‑grinder fails too; victory demands a large high‑tech force backed by industry and resilient logistics.

Remote War Broadens Who Can Serve As drones multiply and automate, people withdraw into cover and armor, yet headcount may remain in the hundreds of thousands or millions. Technology multiplies per‑soldier effect while broadening the pool of operators in the deep rear. Women and even fully paralyzed individuals can fight by remotely controlling machines.

Brain‑Computer Interfaces Enter the Force Neural implants already let paralyzed patients interact 50–100 hours a week, and plans expand from one to three chips per person. Neuroplasticity allows training to recognize new signal patterns, such as feeding radar cues directly to air‑defense operators’ brains. The first military adopters are likely vehicle operators and special‑operations troops.

Exoskeletons Lighten the Load Modern infantry carries so much weight that range, speed, and ammunition suffer; exoskeletons restore all three. Logistics units and artillery loaders gain most immediately by saving their backs. Foot reconnaissance and mountain troops also benefit as terrain and altitude amplify fatigue.

Humanoids Become Practical for Human Worlds Humanoid robots finally near scale as neural nets enable natural instruction, batteries grow dense and cheap, and onboard computers become both powerful and efficient. Designers copy human anatomy—externalizing ‘hand’ muscles to the forearm via tendons—to achieve dexterity. The human form prevails because doors, stairs, vehicles, crates, and casualty care are all designed for people.

From Loaders to Shock Troops, with Local Brains Humanoids first handle logistics and explosive ordnance work, then advance to assault roles and even staff duties—soaking initial fire and holding lines. They compute locally to avoid fragile links, periodically syncing with the cloud so all robots learn. With targets near $20,000 and aspirations below $10,000, even a specialized $100,000 combat android makes sense—always trained, always available, and needing no pay or pensions—so commercial reluctance will not prevent others from weaponizing them.

Tanks Downshift; IFVs Bulk Up and Sense More Drones, ATGMs, mines, and cheap FPVs make tank duels rare and brief, forcing tanks into short‑exposure fire support and even closed‑position shots. The cost exchange is brutal: a dozen kamikaze drones worth tens of thousands can shred a million‑dollar tank, pushing experiments with small, fast, crew‑reduced tankettes. IFVs adopt Bradley‑like layouts, add tank‑level armor, active protection, all‑around cameras, and organic recon/interceptor drones, while anti‑drone defense outweighs traditional fire support; when industry lags, civilian pickups, buggies, and vans fill the gap—echoing how aircraft eclipsed battleships.

Fast SPGs and Heavier, Smarter MLRS Take Over Artillery evolved fast: longer ranges, tighter accuracy, and minute‑scale counter‑battery reactions make static sites and ammo piles a death sentence. Towed guns give way to rapid, long‑range, precise self‑propelled systems, yet tube artillery hits natural limits in caliber and reach. Heavy MLRS step in—fast, long‑range, precise, programmable per rocket with package reloads—blurring into operational‑tactical missiles and squeezing out lighter legacy launchers.

Manned Aviation Transforms: Helicopters Fade, Stealth with Loyal Wingmen Endures Dense air defenses, lasers, and drone interceptors make attack helicopters slow, vulnerable targets; their guns now swat drones, unguided rockets scatter, and only guided missiles remain effective—yet drones can carry those too. Nations cancel or freeze purchases as operators plan to wear out current fleets and replace them with UAVs, while transport helicopters persist. High‑altitude stealth survives: F‑35s and F‑15s roamed Iran, B‑2s struck, and manned jets will lead loyal‑wingman UAVs serving as tankers, sensors, weapon trucks, and decoys until AI pilots mature.

Air Defense Extends and Electrifies Surface‑to‑air weapons grow faster, longer‑ranged, and more precise—S‑500s reach hundreds of kilometers and high altitudes, while China pursues extreme‑range SAMs; in the air, ramjet AAMs like Meteor sustain thrust past 200 km. Energy weapons mature: lasers offer high precision, low energy‑cost shots, and quasi‑infinite magazines but degrade in dust and humidity; microwaves fry swarms. Yet detection is the bottleneck—radars are hunted first, so dense meshes of passive optical‑acoustic sensors must backstop interceptors, and sabotage often opens modern SEAD.

Cheap Launch Militarizes Orbit, but Airborne Sensors Still Matter Reusable rockets collapse launch costs: in 2024 there were 261 orbital launches, 138 by SpaceX, and of 12,000+ satellites over 8,000 belong to SpaceX. Starlink became a decisive enabler for Ukraine’s front, and rivals race to copy it. The Pentagon weighs shifting some AWACS roles to space, but low, small, cluttered targets remain hard, constellations must be vast, and satellites are vulnerable; even as space helps track systems like Burevestnik or Avangard at phases of flight, aircraft‑borne DRLO still cannot be retired.

Space‑Based Missile Defense Returns in Costly Form A new U.S. ‘Golden Dome’ reprises old orbital‑interceptor ideas alongside upgraded ground lasers and interceptors and expanded space sensing. Effectiveness demands massive constellations to sift warheads, debris, and decoys, inviting cheaper adversary counters like more missiles or asymmetric systems such as Poseidon. ‘Rods from God’ remain impractical, while orbital lasers and microwaves are plausible for space targets—but Kessler‑style debris cascades make any shooting in orbit dangerous; meanwhile, Starship‑class craft could rush cargo or a company‑sized force to coastal waters.

Unmanned Swarms and Containerized Weapons Upend Navies Precision weapons end gigantism at sea: cheap unmanned boats and cruise missiles from small craft threaten billion‑dollar ships. Containerized launchers on civilian hulls widen the threat envelope, and in a U.S.–China clash both sides could quickly lose capital ships and fall back on drones and repurposed merchant fleets—where China can outbuild. Unmanned subs lurk for months on the seabed near ports, while mass sinkings of freighters would cripple a world where roughly 80% of trade moves by sea and the fleet totals about 2.4 billion DWT.

Digging In: Underground Industry, Fast Tunneling, and Civilian Disguise Firepower scales relentlessly—from millions of tons of bombs in WWII to tens of thousands of tons dropped on tiny Gaza—while satellites and drones lay the rear bare. Key hubs—staffs, airfields, data centers, factories, depots—must move underground, as already practiced by Iran and North Korea; the bottleneck is fast tunneling, with promises of 11 km/day still far from today’s tens of meters. Frontlines need rapidly dug subterrain too, yet not everything can go below, so movement in the rear will blur with civilian life—inviting the logic of total war.

Vanishing Roles, Quantum Risks, and the Primacy of Adaptive Systems Quantum computers likely reach commercial use in the 2030s and threaten today’s encryption, validating suspicions that states hoard traffic for future decryption; post‑quantum algorithms exist but demand broad rollout and hardware upgrades, even putting Bitcoin at risk. Drones erode whole vocations: snipers lose relevance except for EM‑resilient observation, and large parachute assaults prove rare and risky, confining airborne to limited raids under strong cover. War remains the ultimate judge: technology matters, but victory belongs to systems that learn faster, reorganize processes, and endure long‑haul stress.