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RUSSIA AFTER THE ELECTIONS: protests, border closures, mobilization and new laws? / Ekaterina Shulman

Екатерина Шульман, политолог

00:00:00

Political analyst Yekaterina Shulman discusses the practical implications of war, emphasizing that it results in new vacancies and faces at the table. She highlights that authoritarian elections do not bring about changes but rather consequences, such as increased likelihood of repressive laws being passed and travel restrictions after elections.

Что политологи не смогли предсказать по событиям 2023 года?

00:00:50

Unpredictable Events of 2023 In 2023, the main prediction about it being a year of war came true. The dramatic death and unexpected events, like the explosion near Tverskaya Oblast, were highly theatrical and surprising.

Unexpected Consequences of War The ongoing large-scale war led to radical changes in political systems but no significant personnel changes. Repressive campaigns began with replacements and promotions as promised during elections.

Economic Impact and Elite Beneficiaries Despite the war's economic impact on society, only a few elite individuals managed to increase their wealth significantly through strategic financial management rather than direct wartime profiteering.

Выборы президента России — главное событие 2024 года?

00:07:06

The upcoming presidential elections in Russia are considered the main event of 2024. In authoritarian elections, the aftermath is more significant than the results themselves. The focus is on what will happen after the election and whether it will lead to a new mobilization or escalation.

Стоит ли ожидать новых репрессивных законов после выборов?

00:08:34

The speaker discusses the possibility of new repressive laws and tightening of regulations after the elections. He mentions that for 15 years, he has been hearing about screws being tightened and anticipates further repressive laws to be passed by the State Duma due to its inability to dissolve itself or engage in other activities.

Случится ли мобилизация и закрытие границ сразу после выборов?

00:09:46

The probability of mobilization after elections increases, but it doesn't guarantee that it will happen. The idea is to send out electronic mobilization orders linked to individual accounts on government services, preventing travel using the passport associated with the account.

Будут ли люди продолжать уезжать из России? Или большинство начнет возвращаться?

00:11:30

The migration trend in Russia is uncertain, with some leaving and others returning. The reasons for migration are varied, including panic during mobilization or strategic planning to allow children to finish school before leaving. This process is nonlinear and complex.

Митинги жен мобилизованных и протесты в Башкортостане — разовая акция или тренд?

00:12:39

Protests Categorized as Situational The protests in Bashkortostan are categorized as situational, arising from local incidents and issues. These protests often transition from local to political, similar to the events in Moscow and Yaroslavl. The 'Bashkir uprising' fits into this pattern but is considered short-term actions that do not change the regime.

Challenges Faced by Local Protests Local protests with a political agenda can escalate into broader federal issues, such as those seen in Moscow. However, the 'Bashkir uprising' remains localized due to challenges faced by protesters who are mostly locals or relatives of locals. This type of protest does not have a leader or headquarters; it occurs until people become tired without inciting fear for participation.

Могут ли протесты в 2024 году в России стать массовыми?

00:16:46

Potential for Mass Protests in Russia Assessing the potential for mass protests in Russia is extremely difficult and unpredictable. There are two types of surveys on this topic: measuring protest readiness and protesters' expectations. People generally do not plan to participate in protests unless they feel directly affected by a specific event, making protest expectations more indicative of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with life around them.

Levels of Public Anxiety By the end of the year, levels of calmness and anxiety have approached September 2022 levels after an initial shock followed by mobilization. The festive period saw increased concern due to rising prices and supply chain disruptions, creating discomfort among people. Additionally, communal emergencies affect not only those directly impacted but also those who hear about them.

Impact on Public Sentiment The public sentiment will lead to mass protests when citizens perceive a weakened government authority within an autocracy rather than democracy. In such systems, citizen discontent leads to change; however, it remains uncertain how recent events will influence public sentiment at this level of anxiety.

Вы все еще думаете о возвращении в Россию после окончания войны?

00:21:04

Returning to Russia After the War Many people are still thinking about returning to Russia after the war, but nothing has changed. The idea of a ceasefire and the end of war is discussed, along with legislative restrictions on professional activities due to being labeled as a foreign agent.

Challenges and Opportunities The speaker faces legal restrictions that prevent them from teaching or expressing themselves publicly in Russia. They express frustration at not being able to work professionally due to these legislative barriers, while also contemplating future opportunities if these restrictions are lifted.