Why Afghanistan's Rise Is a NIGHTMARE for Muslim World?

From Proxy to Adversary: Afghanistan Turns Pakistan’s Gamble Against It Pakistan once treated Afghanistan as strategic depth, expecting Taliban 2.0 to deliver a pro-Pakistan regime. The Taliban rejected the Durand Line as a colonial fraud, claimed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, tore down border fencing, seized checkposts, and exchanged fire with Pakistani forces. They equipped TTP with U.S.-left weapons, fueling 350+ attacks in 2022–23, a 60% rise in terror incidents and a 500% surge in suicide bombings. Pakistan’s mass expulsion of Afghan refugees sparked Pashtun backlash, Taliban leaders threatened territorial rupture, and Islamabad admitted militants had seized the initiative.

Water Leverage: Kosh Tepa and the Helmand Showdown The Taliban’s Water Sovereignty policy treats past river-sharing deals as nonbinding, sending water downstream only after Afghan needs are met. The Kosh Tepa Canal on the Amu Darya—285 km long, 100 m wide, 8 m deep—aims to irrigate 550,000 hectares, create jobs, and divert 20–30% of the river’s flow. Downstream states reel: Uzbekistan could lose 15% of its water, Turkmenistan up to 50%, and Iran, which relies on these flows for roughly 40% of its agriculture, faces deepening drought. Despite Iranian threats and border firefights over Helmand and Harirud, the Taliban are pressing ahead with Kamalkhan and Pashtan dams, asserting Afghan primacy over water.

Afghanistan First: From War Economy to State-Driven Projects ‘Afghanistan First’ redirects the state from war to development, prioritizing infrastructure, economy, and reconstruction. A crackdown on corruption lifted domestic revenue to $1.54 billion in 2022, chiefly from mining, customs, and infrastructure taxes, with projects executed and payments made on time. Kabul New City, a 722 sq km capital extension with 250,000 housing units and modern civic systems, resumed in 2023 with $700 million and is cast as a symbol of national rebirth. The shift seeks to finance growth without foreign aid and recast Afghanistan from battleground to builder.

Corridors and Pipelines: Rewiring Regional Connectivity Afghanistan is reviving regional lifelines: TAPI to carry Turkmen gas to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan, projected to yield about $1 billion a year and thousands of jobs. CASA-1000 funding quietly resumed to route Kyrgyz and Tajik hydropower into Afghanistan and Pakistan, stabilizing Afghanistan’s northern grid. The 573 km Trans-Afghan Railway will link Uzbekistan to Pakistan, cutting transit from 35 days to 4, with construction confirmed for 2025. A proposed CPEC extension, plus Chinese oil and lithium deals and a Xinjiang–Kabul link, embeds Afghanistan in supply chains and puts Beijing in direct contact with Kabul—unsettling Pakistan.

Shattering the Ummah Illusion: Neighbors Turn Into Rivals By leveraging control over rivers, land, and minerals, Afghanistan alarms Iran, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan while pushing back against Turkish involvement. Downstream agriculture, cotton, and food output face steep losses as Kabul asserts first rights over flows originating on Afghan soil. Clashes at borders, threats to expel refugees, and hardening rhetoric reveal national interest eclipsing the notion of a unified Islamic Ummah. With leverage rooted in geography and infrastructure, neighbors that once invoked fraternity now confront a rival shaping outcomes on its terms.

India’s Opening: From Goodwill to Strategic Advantage India’s schools, hospitals, dams, roads, and humanitarian aid have built deep goodwill in Afghanistan, where locals and even Taliban commanders treat Indians as their own. As ties warm through direct meetings and visits, Pakistanis encounter suspicion born of decades of exploitation. Kabul vows not to let its soil serve Pakistan’s terrorism against India, while reports indicate India leverages Taliban networks to neutralize militants in Pakistan. A stable, fast-developing Afghanistan outside Pakistan’s sway could become India’s sharpest strategic asset, turning Islamabad’s own playbook back on itself.