YAKOVLEV: Why it is dangerous for elites to tolerate Putin. What will happen to the HSE. How business adapts to war

In this video, Bogdan Bakaleiko welcomes the viewers to the YouTube channel Khodorkovskii Laif. He introduces himself as an economist and invites Andrei Yakovlev, a guest researcher from the Center for Development Studies.

The Future of Education and Science Harvard University recently announced the end of its partnership with the Higher School of Economics, leading to concerns about the future of education. Additionally, there has been a decrease in academic staff due to budget cuts and political pressure. The Russian government's focus on national security has led to limited international collaboration in research and education.

Challenges for Russian Science "Brain drain" is a significant challenge for Russian science as talented researchers are attracted by opportunities abroad. In contrast, during Soviet times, resources were allocated towards developing strong scientific talent domestically through programs like megagrants. However, isolationist policies have hindered internationalization efforts in research and education.

Ideological control has destroyed the progress made in real scientific activity over the past 15 years. While there is still hope for subjects like mathematics, other fields such as economics and law are likely to suffer. The emergence of a new generation with access to alternative education has brought about some positive changes, particularly in terms of teaching quality. However, it is important to note that not everyone can physically leave their countries for education purposes.

As students in Russia return to school and university, many are faced with the question of where to study. While some have already made their choice, others are still considering their options. It is important for students and families to think about the future prospects when deciding on a university. True sciences, especially engineering and technical fields, offer promising opportunities due to the demand for qualified professionals in various sectors.

Political Transformation The video discusses the political transformation in Russia and how it affects the elites. It highlights that there are now multiple players in politics compared to the 90s, which poses challenges for those who used to have power. The speaker suggests that there may be a need to negotiate and make changes, but acknowledges the risks involved.

Risks and Uncertainties "Risk" is a recurring theme discussed in this chapter. The speaker mentions high personal risks faced by individuals associated with certain interests or activities, citing examples of top managers falling from buildings along with their families as an extreme demonstration of risk consequences. Additionally, he notes uncertainties surrounding business dealings between Russia and China due to differing interests.

Putin's Lack of Control Prigozhin revealed that Putin does not have control over the situation. Prigozhin himself was an indicator of this, as he had little support from ordinary people in Rostov and no support from elites. The presence of a small group of mercenaries who were able to travel hundreds of kilometers without obstacles indicates that Vladimir Vladimirovich does not actually control the situation.

'Tainii' Support for Change 'Tainii' supporters on Telegram expressed their desire for change because they did not want Prigozhin to remain in power. These individuals believed that if there was another initiator with a clear understanding and desire for power, there could be agreement on what actions to take. This is similar to historical analogies where Stalin's death led others to realize Beria would be next, prompting them to find ways within the system.

There is a question of whether Putin's power structures, such as the siloviki (security services) and the army, are loyal to him. It seems that these elites have become accustomed to being obedient but there are emerging figures like Vagner who we don't know much about. There is also an impression that these elites may be somewhat amorphous in nature and could potentially be overpowered or face threats in their lives.

"Elite" consider the war a mistake, as it is broadcasted to the general public. They claim that individuals like Deputy Zatulina, who are not liberal in any way, benefit from this regime and support their actions. In particular, they mention his speech at an event for United Russia where he stated that war is a mistake. This perspective has been present since the 90s when such people publicly expressed their views on Ukraine's future prospects."

Economic Impact of War The Russian economy has been affected by the ongoing war, leading to a decline in the value of the ruble. Despite efforts from the Central Bank and agreements with businessmen, including exporting revenue sales, these measures have not been successful in stabilizing the currency.

Influence of Budgetary Spending "Massive" amounts of money are being injected into various sectors through military contracts for defense and civilian industries. This includes food production, construction materials, and other necessary resources. Additionally, mobilized payments to families and contractors contribute significantly to economic factors.

- Some economists believe that increasing labor productivity can improve the economic situation. - Digitalization and technological advancements have made it possible to make certain processes more efficient. - However, there is a lack of workforce due to various factors affecting the exchange rate and monetary policy controlled by the Central Bank. - The Ministry of Finance has been optimizing civil sector spending, including education and healthcare budgets, but discussions are ongoing about potential cuts in future budgets. - There is also concern about losing control over military expenses, which may require increased funding in the future.

In the United States and Soviet Union, military expenditure played a significant role in their economies during historical periods such as World War I and II. However, there was no substantial conversion afterward. Private enterprises continue to produce weapons due to large export markets. This sector provides economic stimuli for development.

The war has pushed Putin's regime towards the end of privatization and made private companies more effective in aviation construction. The influence of money in defense complex could provide positive stimuli for the economy in the long term, similar to how it was during Soviet Union's competition with the United States. However, military expenses have severely limited Russia's economic potential.

Impact of Salary Increase on the Market The increase in salaries is changing the market, particularly in Russia's economy. In the early 2000s, there was a boom in demand for products and services, leading to an economic growth period. However, with rising wages and difficulty retaining workers, businesses are facing challenges.

Challenges Faced by Businesses 'Businesses are struggling to retain employees due to increased competition from defense industries that offer higher salaries. This has led to a paradoxical situation where only a small percentage of people have seen their incomes rise significantly while others have simpler demands for basic goods.' Despite this challenge, there are companies ready to respond but lack new skilled workers who can contribute towards increasing productivity through modern equipment and technology.

The Challenges Faced by Gazprom "Gazprom" and China are currently discussing the possibility of a new partnership. However, Gazprom has been experiencing significant losses in recent years, especially after the start of the war. The company's strategy focused on gas pipelines to Europe may no longer be effective in preserving its national importance. It is uncertain whether China will invest billions of dollars into this project due to long-term risks and uncertainties.

Long-Term Strategies for Gazprom It remains unclear if Gazprom can change its strategy from relying solely on gas pipelines to exploring other options such as becoming a federal operator or diversifying its business activities. While there may be potential income through budgetary support, it would result in losing the status and prestige that comes with being a major player like before. Additionally, Russia's unpredictable future poses challenges for Chinese investors who prioritize their own business interests.

"Postavte laik" on this episode of the traditional course by Bogdan Bakaleiko. He thanks the viewers for their support and asks them to subscribe to Khodorkovskii Laif YouTube channel. In conclusion, he wishes everyone well.