EcoMatMod-2021. Recording of the broadcast of the meeting 09.11.2021

Pavel Yakovlevich Grabarnik discusses the technical aspects of the conference, including the roles of moderators and technical assistants. Participants can ask questions orally by raising their hand or submit them via a Google document link provided during the live stream.

The conference on mathematical modeling in ecology is about to begin, addressing the global issues of climate change and pandemic. The plenary report focuses on carbon monitoring in Russian forests as a basis for forecasting. It also discusses the need for precise observations and climate stations.

National Carbon Monitoring in Russian Forests The presentation focuses on the national carbon monitoring of forests in Russia, emphasizing its importance for forecasting. It highlights that Russian forests cover about 20% of the world's forest area and play a crucial role in global carbon balance.

Challenges of Carbon Assessment The challenges related to assessing carbon pools and fluxes are discussed, including complexities such as vegetation assessment, soil carbon estimation, continuous measurement of emissions into the atmosphere, and uncertainties due to budget assessments.

Uncertainties in Forest Carbon Budgeting The speaker addresses significant uncertainties associated with forest carbon budgeting due to outdated assessments from Soviet times leading to underestimation by up to 30%. The lack of updated data poses substantial uncertainty regarding Russia's forest carbon budget.

Issues with Data Collection and Evaluation 'Data discrepancies between international estimates raise concerns about accuracy. Official reports show a 45-fold difference indicating large inconsistencies within official estimations.'

Information Gap: Assessing Russia’s Forest Carbon Budget 'There is an urgent need for improved information provision for accurate evaluation. Outdated data sources (over 25 years old) hinder precise calculations despite recent completion cycles.'

Introduction to Carbon Polygons The concept of carbon polygons and their potential role in assessing the greenhouse gas balance in Russia. The history of development, starting from the conservation project proposal for similar stations worldwide.

Research on Greenhouse Gases Discussion about the research on greenhouse gases, including methane, nitrogen oxides, and other hydrocarbons with significant impact on climate systems. Challenges in measuring these gas flows using traditional methods.

International Monitoring Stations Overview of international monitoring stations covering various natural ecosystems globally but sparsely distributed across Russian territory due to limited funding and support until recent years.

Climate Change Observations 'Observation data showing a sharp increase in global temperature over the past few decades by 4 degrees Celsius compared to previous periods.' Impact assessment includes changes in precipitation patterns affecting regions differently around the world.

Extreme Weather Events 'Analysis reveals an increase in extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall intervals attributed to rising temperatures.' Concerns raised about drought conditions impacting vegetation communities.

Carbon Polygon Projects 'Initiatives focused on creating pilot projects for carbon polygon development involving multiple regions within Russia. Expansion plans include engaging more participants with expertise.'

Role of Carbon Polygons in Greenhouse Gas Balance The potential role of carbon polygons (ecological-climatic stations) in assessing the greenhouse gas balance on Russian territory is significant. The establishment and monitoring of about 750 stations across Russia are crucial for evaluating carbon reserves, vegetation, and conducting direct flow measurements using various technologies.

Methodologies for Monitoring Classic approaches to estimating carbon reserves involve direct measurements, remote sensing methods, verification through ground-based data collection, and the use of logical modeling techniques. Satellite measurements play a key role in providing information on CO2 concentrations as well as other greenhouse gases globally.

Challenges and Strategies for Polygon Development Establishing complex equipment at the polygons requires careful planning due to their high cost and import dependence. Strategies include representative natural landscapes with extensive observation points focusing on ecosystems' absorption capacity while considering land management practices.

Utilizing Natural Ecosystems Natural ecosystems such as wetlands have a high potential for absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Implementing strategies like reforestation can contribute significantly to reducing emissions.

Mathematical Modeling Challenges Addressing challenges related to mathematical modeling involves solving inverse problems using innovative remote sensing technology that predicts greenhouse gas flows based on surface properties.

Impact of Extreme Events The increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events indicates climate system imbalance caused by rapid temperature rise affecting atmospheric structure

Introduction to the Carbon Polygon Irina Kurganova introduces the topic of 'Karbonovii poligon «Pushchino»' and its significance. She discusses the location, size, and unique features of the polygon.

Objectives and Perspectives The presentation outlines the goals for creating carbon polygons in Pushchino, emphasizing research on carbon balance regulation in various ecosystems. It also highlights plans for a national network to measure greenhouse gas emissions from soils.

Collaborative Research Efforts The establishment of an innovative scientific-educational station is discussed along with collaboration with multiple institutions including universities and research organizations. The focus is on integrating data collection methods across different ecological systems.

Challenges and Solutions 'Nikolai Zavalish' raises questions about organizing a unified database for measuring soil emissions at multiple locations. Irina explains that efforts are underway to create a national network based on existing measurements but emphasizes challenges related to standardization.

Conclusion & Future Plans The conclusion summarizes ongoing efforts towards unifying measurement standards across Russia's diverse ecological systems while addressing challenges associated with data integration

Introduction to the Handbook Frisman Yefim Yakovlevich introduces a handbook on 'Productivity of Grass Ecosystems' edited by A.A. Titlyanova. The handbook provides detailed assessments and calculations of primary production, including aboveground and underground plant products in various ecosystems across Russia.

Research Findings and Conclusions The research presents data from 180 ecosystems in European Russia, 103 in Kazakhstan, and 65 in Siberia. Observations show interesting dynamics over several years with general trends identified for both mountainous and plain systems. The study explores methods for estimating total productivity based on known values of aboveground production.

Global Warming Forecast The presentation focuses on the analysis of data related to global warming and its connection to carbon absorption. The increase in global temperature over the past 150 years is attributed mainly to CO2 emissions, with other factors being relatively insignificant.

Climate Change Consensus There is a consensus among scientists that approximately 97% agree on climate change issues, although there are still climate skeptics who challenge this view. The speaker highlights Zalman Gudkaevich as an example of a prominent climate skeptic.

Solar Radiation Influence The impact of solar radiation cycles, such as the 11-year cycle and longer-term cycles (60-70 years), on global temperatures is discussed. It's noted that changes in solar energy spectrum affect temperature variations due to atmospheric transmission properties.

CO2 Concentration Effect 'Logarithmic relationship between CO2 concentration and temperature' - Higher concentrations lead to lower temperatures due to increased absorption capacity until saturation occurs. This logarithmic effect forms the basis for analyzing temperature predictions based on CO2 levels.

Temperature Prediction Models Different scenarios for future temperatures are presented based on various emission reduction strategies and technological progress models. These scenarios show significant differences in projected future temperatures.

Data Analysis Challenges 'Challenges with recent data': There have been challenges accessing recent climatic data since certain archives were restricted after 2017, leading some discrepancies between different datasets.

Artificial Reforestation Initiative The initiative to plant 1 trillion trees by 2030 sparked intense debate in the forestry community. The effectiveness of such initiatives and the selection of suitable areas for reforestation were discussed.

Challenges in Reforestation Differentiating between reforestation and afforestation, considering carbon losses from previous disturbances, and addressing negative climate change impacts were key challenges highlighted during discussions.

Reforesting Projects Implementation A large-scale tree planting program was launched in Russia with a goal to restore forests on specific sites. However, concerns about fire risk due to monoculture pine plantations raised doubts about project sustainability.

Modeling Carbon Sequestration 'Mathematical modeling' emerged as a potential tool for predicting the effectiveness of forest restoration projects. It revealed that natural regeneration outperformed artificial reforestation in terms of long-term carbon accumulation.

Sustainability Criteria for Reforesting Projects The need for additional measures to ensure long-term carbon sequestration, including mixed-species plantations and ongoing maintenance efforts, was emphasized as essential criteria for evaluating reforesting projects' success.

Impact of Forest Management on Ecosystem Diversity The study focuses on the use of mathematical models to plan forestry activities, considering economic stability and ecological constraints. It emphasizes the importance of sustainable practices and certification for large companies.

Mathematical Modeling for Planning Forestry Activities Mathematical modeling is a suitable tool for calculating various scenarios from an economic, ecological, and social perspective. It helps in selecting optimal biological indicators while accounting for environmental limitations.

Structural Analysis Using Taxation Data The research utilizes taxation data to simulate natural forest development under different lighting conditions and plant growth requirements. The models also consider exogenous influences such as age distribution, competition among species, and habitat characteristics.

Introduction to Ecosystem Services The concept of ecosystem services emerged in the early 2000s with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, which introduced the term 'ecosystem services' and highlighted their importance. These services include provisioning (food, water), regulating (climate regulation), supporting (nutrient cycles) functions that ecosystems provide.

Assessment of Ecosystem Services Evaluating ecosystem services involves analyzing climate data, digital terrain models, and remote sensing imagery to quantify interactions between climate parameters and landscape structure. This assessment aims to understand the economic value of these ecological processes for sustainable management.

Impact of Climate on Landscape Structure Climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, solar radiation influence energy balance components like transpiration and organic matter accumulation. Remote sensing data is used to visualize these relationships by assessing vegetation indices reflecting biological productivity.

Classification of Land Cover Discriminant analysis classifies land cover states based on climatic variables with a focus on predicting current conditions from historical records.

Dynamic Changes in Land Use Comparing land use schemes over time reveals areas most vulnerable or resilient to climate change impacts through differences in vegetative cover dynamics.

Genomic Epidemiology of COVID-19 Georgii Bazikin, an evolutionary geneticist, analyzes the genomes of various viruses including SARS-CoV-2. He discusses the importance and demand for studying viral genomes during a global pandemic.

The Significance of Virus Genomes Bazikin emphasizes that SARS-CoV-2 has one of the most studied virus genomes due to its high volume of genetic data. Understanding viral transmission and evolution is crucial in combating pandemics.

Challenges in Containing Viral Spread The long asymptomatic period and pre-symptomatic transmissions make it difficult to contain virus spread using traditional methods like symptom-based detection. Testing and contact tracing are insufficient in preventing global pandemics.

Evolutionary Tools for Understanding Transmission Patterns 'Molecular clock' analysis helps reconstruct transmission history by sequencing local outbreaks' genomes. This approach provides insights into how different variants spread within populations over time.

Impact on Global Travel Restrictions Travel restrictions had limited impact on introducing new variants as evidenced by continuous emergence despite strict border closures.

Genomic Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Russia The common ancestor lived 6 generations ago. The distribution of coalescence times indicates the speed of the process, with some combinations leading to faster rates.

Population Size and Distribution Constant population size allows for estimating average time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and comparing it with expected distributions. Changes in population size can be inferred from different forms of TMRCA trees.

Evolutionary Dynamics Exponential growth results in longer branches on the tree due to recent expansion, while smaller populations lead to shorter branches. Different mutations provide insights into population dynamics over time.

Phylogenetic Trees and Mutation Analysis 'Fossil' DNA tests are used for phylogenetic analysis, similar methods have been applied for mammoth studies using fossilized DNA samples extracted from remains found in permafrost regions.

Viral Evolution Studies Viruses function at a much faster pace than mammoths; therefore, evolutionary studies can be conducted on a scale ranging from thousands of years down to weeks.

Epidemiological Significance 'Reproductive number' or 'basic reproduction number' is crucial as it characterizes new infections based on existing ones: higher numbers indicate growing epidemics or outbreaks while lower numbers signify decline or containment.

Balanced Identification Technology Sokolov discusses the technology of balanced identification, focusing on monitoring and forecasting COVID-19 epidemics. He emphasizes the significance of model selection in epidemic prediction.

Background and Expertise Sokolov shares his background as a defender of dissertations on biological community dynamics, his current work in distributed computing centers, and his expertise in balanced defect technologies.

Model Development Process He explains how he regularly receives diverse data to develop models for predicting disease dynamics. Sokolov highlights that actual disease incidence is higher than reported cases due to underreporting.

Balanced Defect Technology 'Balanced defect' technology simplifies model complexity by integrating quantitative and qualitative information into the modeling process. It allows rapid construction and modification of models based on integrated knowledge without introducing new elements.

Modeling Disease Dynamics The speaker demonstrates a simple example using infection data from Moscow at the beginning of an epidemic outbreak.

Challenges with Model Complexity 'Balancing proximity to measurements with model complexity' determines method applicability even for more complex differential equation-based models where technological support aids unknown parameter estimation.