How Trump Plans to Deport 4% of the U.S. Population | WSJ

Donald Trump’s proposed deportation plan is estimated to cost $315 billion, marking it as the largest domestic deportation operation in U.S. history. Even conservative estimates place the expense at $162 billion, surpassing annual budgets for most federal agencies in 2024. The scale and logistics required for such an operation contribute to its staggering financial implications over a decade.

The plan to deport 13 million undocumented immigrants over four years faces immense logistical, financial, and operational challenges. Achieving this would require quadrupling current ICE removal rates and could cost up to $88 billion annually for a decade if only 20% leave voluntarily. Experts debate the feasibility; some argue it demands significant resource reallocation or infusion while others suggest economies of scale might reduce costs once infrastructure is established.

Deportations begin with targeted arrests, focusing initially on criminals. ICE identifies individuals through investigative processes or by locating them in jails, prisons, or their homes. Most undocumented immigrants have no criminal record and are not in custody; thus at-large arrests become necessary despite being logistically complex and costly. These operations often require multiple agents over several days due to the lack of judicial warrants for immigration violations.

Immigration detention is costly, with ICE spending $200 daily per detainee. Despite funding for 41,500 beds in fiscal year 2025, this capacity falls short of detaining the annual influx of one million individuals. Alternatives like electronic surveillance cost significantly less at $4 per person daily but may not suffice to manage large numbers effectively. Family detention incurs even higher expenses due to required child welfare standards such as pediatric care and education provisions during prolonged stays.

Legal processing is the primary bottleneck in mass deportation, requiring significant resources to address over 10.6 million cases. Resolving these would necessitate nearly 2,000 additional immigration judges and more than 1,100 courtrooms alongside support staff like clerks and secretaries. Each case costs over $2,500 due to staffing needs on both judicial and ICE sides. Tent courts near borders have been used as a faster alternative for hearings but come with high construction costs—such as $16 million for facilities in Laredo—and logistical limitations.

Deporting individuals with final removal orders involves significant logistical challenges, including arranging transportation via buses or planes depending on their destination. The operation could require over 6,000 flights annually compared to the current 1,200 by ICE in fiscal year 2023. Each flight costs approximately $17,000 per hour and may increase if private contractors raise prices; however, existing government aircraft from agencies like ICE or even military resources might be utilized for scaling up operations. While Trump has not specified a cost estimate for his plan to enforce immigration laws more strictly upon taking office again, experts suggest it would take years rather than a single massive effort due to practical limitations.

Securing sufficient funding from Congress is critical for large-scale border operations. Senate Republicans prioritize passing a border funding bill next year, focusing on enhanced security measures, increased detention capacity to prevent premature releases, and more ICE agents for deporting individuals posing threats. Despite Republican control of both Congressional chambers, their narrow majority makes securing such extensive spending uncertain.