Ход войны | Начало апреля | Сегодняшние силы и возможности сторон (English subtitles) @Max_Katz​

Russian Army's Initial Attack The Russian army attacked Ukraine with disproportionately small forces, suffering heavy casualties and disruption of supply lines. The offensive capability waned by the beginning of March, leading to a retreat from Kyiv and an operational pause on the fronts.

Current Situation in Ukraine After the retreat from Kyiv, an operational pause was established on the fronts with only local clashes. There is no real hope that the war will end soon; it is more likely just a calm before the storm.

Psychological Transformation in Moscow and Kyiv In 1941, the Red Army's victories near Moscow led to a psychological shift by securing the capital, dispelling myths of enemy invincibility, and revealing atrocities. The same transformation is happening in Kyiv in 2022 with Ukraine's victory as a psychological breakthrough. Mariupol has become crucial for Ukraine, preventing Russian forces from acting on other fronts.

The Battle for Donbass: Kursk Bulge Reversed The ongoing battle for Mariupol exhausts the Russian army and economy while hindering their advances. The most expected course of events is a large-scale battle for Donbass which could resemble 'the Kursk Bulge in reverse.' Ukrainian troops are prepared defensively but face potential encirclement by simultaneous strikes from north and south. If Russia fails here like Germany did at Kursk, it would be a significant defeat.

Ukrainian Armaments and Equipment The motivation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unquestionable, especially after the events in Bucha. The United States is supplying Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missile systems, NLAW guided missiles, Matador grenade launchers, and Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems. Additionally, portable Starstreak and NASAMS mobile anti-aircraft missile systems are coming from Great Britain and Norway respectively. These advanced weapons have significantly reduced Russian aviation superiority.

Global Support for Ukraine Dozens of NATO members are supplying Ukraine with various military resources including weapons, equipment, ammunition, fuel,and medical supplies. New treaties for supplies are made in secret to avoid publicity after incidents like the failed transfer of Polish Mig-29 aircrafts to Ukrainian Air Forces.

The issue of mobilization reserves in the war between Russia and Ukraine is complex. While Russia has a larger population, Ukraine's patriotic war on its own soil garners strong support for mobilization. President Zelensky's soaring ratings reflect public trust, with over 800,000 Ukrainians available for service. In contrast, Putin lacks legitimacy to enlist Russians and faces potential challenges in mobilizing reserves.

The Inevitable Defeat of the Russian Army By March, it was clear that the Russian army had lost the war. Despite attempts to take Kyiv and engage in positional battles, Russia's chances for victory were slim. Even if they succeeded in Donbass, Ukraine's vast territories and resources made occupation impossible.

The Consequences of Continuing War Continuing the war would lead to more deaths on both sides with no chance of glory or victory. The moral capital built over decades has been lost due to senseless bloodshed and shame. It is imperative for Russia to end the war immediately before further damage is done.