How do you actually beat Pep Guardiola?

One of the biggest questions in world football right now is how to beat.

Pep Guardiola's Impressive Record Since taking over at Manchester City in 2016, Pep Guardiola has coached them for 274 Premier League games and lost only around 13% of those games. In the Champions League, his loss percentage jumps to around 16%, reflecting the higher competitive level. Despite some standout seasons with fewer losses, most of the time he keeps it below five losses per season.

Analyzing Expected Goal Differences In analyzing expected goal differences for all games under Pep Guardiola in both Premier League and Champions League (a total of 351 games), it is revealed that he has lost on expected goals only about one in every ten Premier League matches. This contrasts sharply with Jurgen Klopp's record where Liverpool loses on expected goals approximately one in every four matches.

The general belief is that it's difficult to beat Pep Guardiola, as Maurizio Sarri once admitted. However, looking at the 37 games Manchester City lost under Guardiola in the Premier League reveals some interesting patterns. Tottenham leads with six wins against them, followed by Chelsea, Manchester United, and Liverpool. Surprisingly, teams like Wolves and Leicester also have multiple wins.

Controlling Space in Football The concept of controlling space is crucial when playing against Pep Guardiola's teams. Two different managers, Christian Stellini and Pochettino, have contrasting approaches to this. Stellini emphasizes sitting deeper and absorbing pressure before going on the attack, while Pochettino advocates a high pressing game to disrupt the opponent's buildup phase. Both strategies aim to control space effectively.

Positional Play in Guardiola's Tactics Guardiola's positional play focuses on creating and exploiting space rather than evenly spacing players across the field. He uses various tactics such as stretching wide players apart to open up gaps between defensive lines, using inverted fullbacks to compress space centrally, and generating overloads during build-up play by moving players around strategically. This approach makes it challenging for opponents to stop weaknesses from emerging in their defensive structure.

Defending Against Pep Guardiola Pep Guardiola's teams create problems for a back four by using wide players to isolate space around the middle and attack the open spaces. A back five could be a solution, but it can still be exploited if fullbacks step out. Guardiola may respond by overloading central midfield to gain positional advantage and generate goals through ball play.

Challenges of Conservative Defense Conservative defense against Manchester City can lead to dominance in possession, more chances created, and difficulty in counterattacking due to distance from opposition goal. Additionally, defending conservatively requires luck defensively as well as when finishing chances at the other end. Tottenham's success against Guardiola was attributed to their ability in transitional play.

Jürgen Klopp's Proactive Approach Against Manchester City Jürgen Klopp's proactive approach against Manchester City involves a passive front line to tempt them into the midfield area, followed by aggressive pressing traps when they try to build up. However, this strategy can lead to a divide between the press unit and defensive unit, allowing for dangerous opportunities behind Liverpool's press.

Challenges of Implementing Aggressive Midblock The challenges of implementing an aggressive midblock into high-press approach are highlighted in Liverpool's record against Manchester City and the requirement for exceptional out-of-possession players. The risk of playing an offside trap is also discussed as it can be exploited with balls played over the top.

Beating Pep Guardiola: Arteta's Proactive Approach Mikel Arteta's strategy to beat Pep Guardiola involved stopping the space in the middle, preventing Man City from getting positional advantages. Both teams overloaded the midfield, with only width coming through fullbacks. Arsenal adjusted their defensive responsibilities and pressed high to disrupt Man City's buildup but faced challenges when trying to stop Foden from receiving the ball between lines.

Adapting Defensive Responsibilities Arteta changed his approach by altering fullbacks' responsibilities and using hybrid players in a higher press position. However, Guardiola found solutions by quickly switching play to exploit spaces left open due to defensive adjustments. Despite wanting a higher press initially, Arteta recognized that sitting deeper blocked out the middle effectively and limited chances for both teams.

Flexibility as Key Strategy Arsenal demonstrated a proactive and flexible approach against Manchester City, aiming not just at pressing high but also adapting defensively based on opposition movements. The result was minimal chances for both sides until Arsenal capitalized on set-piece opportunities with taller players leading them to victory.

Tactical Adaptation in Champions League Final In the recent Champions League final, Pep Guardiola changed Manchester City's system to a diamond midfield to counter Inter's narrow structure. This created a 4v3 advantage for Man City in midfield. To counter this, Inagi tweaked the system and used a back five with incredible flexibility to match Man City's tactics.

Proactive Approach and Its Consequences Inter adopted a proactive approach both in possession and out of possession by using high pressing and winning interceptions higher up the field. However, their proactivity led to vulnerabilities that were exploited by Manchester City, resulting in them scoring the winning goal.

Strategies for Beating Pep Guardiola Beating Pep Guardiola requires tactical innovation as simply executing plans may not be enough against his team. The video suggests two options: having an exceptional plan or finding alternative ways because even with perfect execution, beating Manchester City is still challenging.

The key to winning against City is controlling space. You can either sit deeper and hope for luck at both ends, or take a proactive approach by limiting their possession and being clinical in front of goal.