How will the gas sanctions affect Europe? || Europe and Russia: energy union or energy conflict?

The Search for Funny Pictures Recently, I've been trying to find funny pictures but haven't had much luck. Let's start with some fun stories instead.

"Zhivei Kamaz" and "Pakha Vebka" "Zhivei Kamaz" and "Pakha Vebka" are famous novels written by Alexander Demontazh about musketeers. These novels were published 20 years ago. We have already discussed two articles related to my presentation today, which took place almost 8 years ago.

The Eight-Year Gap After eight more years, we can see that the topic of stress is still relevant in this presentation slide plan.

One of the main topics discussed in this video is the significance of the gas and oil industries. These sectors play a crucial role in Europe-Russia interactions, with high demand for natural gas and potential financial gains. However, there are also challenges such as excessive spending, intermediaries profiting more than necessary, and environmental concerns.

Current Gas Balance in Europe The gas balance in Europe has been affected by the shutdown of certain pipelines, resulting in a decrease in capacity. However, there are still significant gas supplies being delivered to meet demand.

Gas Supply from Russia to Europe 'The Blue' pipeline system is one of the main sources of gas supply from Russia to Europe. In recent years, Russia has supplied billions of cubic meters annually through this pipeline network.

Consequences for Europe The European Union is considering pressuring Russia to stop the gas pipeline project. The impact of this decision on the global gas market and various industries, such as manufacturing and electricity generation, will be significant.

Reducing Gas Consumption 'Blue' or 'green' hydrogen production methods are being explored as alternatives to reduce gas consumption in different sectors like commercial buildings and transportation. Implementing energy-saving measures can also help decrease overall demand.

Russia's Role in the Global Gas Market The video discusses Russia's position in the global gas market and the risks associated with excluding Russia. Over the past 10 years, new players like China, Iran, and Qatar have emerged as major producers. However, if European countries were to replace Russian gas with other sources like LNG from SPG3 or shale gas from Europe itself, it would be significantly more expensive. Currently, Russia imports about 22% of its gas to Europe.

Challenges of Reducing Dependency on Russian Gas 'Thomson' plans to reduce their dependency on Russian gas by around 20-40 billion cubic meters over the next two years through various measures such as technical improvements and organizational changes. However, completely abandoning Russian gas would be much costlier than giving up oil due to higher prices for alternative sources. Additionally, politicians at different levels may not fully understand the scale of threats posed by reducing reliance on Russian energy.

Preparing for a Future without Russian Gas Russia needs to prepare for the possibility of other countries reducing their reliance on Russian gas. This can be done by diversifying the economy and finding alternative sources of revenue. While some industries may experience losses, it is not as critical as feared, and there are opportunities in other sectors such as technology.

Negotiating New Terms with Germany 'Gazprom' should consider negotiating new terms with Germany regarding gas supplies through Nord Stream pipeline. Although there might be scenarios where deliveries could continue directly to Germany or even Turkey, it is important to plan ahead and explore options like LNG exports or establishing new facilities in Russia.

Is it possible for there to be a situation where gas has nowhere to go? Russia cannot send the excess gas anywhere else, so what can they do with it?

There is a possibility that gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan could change everything. It has been reported that some Europeans, possibly Germans or others, have reached an agreement with the Azerbaijani government to establish a branch through Turkey. This could potentially solve their problems and create an investment cycle in the industry for 5-7 years.

The recent decrease in supplies from Russia has led to higher prices in Europe. However, the increase in price is not due to higher demand but rather a result of reduced availability. This has affected various industries, such as agriculture and energy.

Jacques Sapir comments on the issue of tankers and bubbles, highlighting the deceptive nature of high-professional reports. He emphasizes that while there is a lack of shipbuilding for transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG), it is mainly limited to South Korea. The construction process takes around three to four years, making it difficult to meet the demand for LNG in Europe.

In this chapter, Reno Bushar discusses the economic impact of sanctions on Europe. He raises questions about how long Europe will continue its sanctions and whether they are effective in addressing energy challenges. As an economic agent, he believes that it is important to consider the consequences of these decisions and suggests preparing for several years if advising others.