Putin's entourage fears the replacement of the FSB director more than The Hague 12/24/2024 @Popularpolitics

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The program "Chestnoe Slovo" on the YouTube channel Popular Politics begins with host Nina Rosebashvili welcoming live viewers, those watching recordings, and individuals overcoming restrictions like VPNs to join. She introduces political scientist Abbas Galyamov as today's guest.

The Shift in Public Opinion and Government's Response As public opinion deteriorates, the government faces increasing challenges. Initially tolerating YouTube to avoid backlash, authorities now consider blocking it due to its role as a platform for alternative information. The regime struggles with fulfilling promises of economic growth and national pride, leading citizens to question their social contract with the state.

YouTube’s Role in Russian Society YouTube is deeply integrated into daily life across Russia, serving not only as an entertainment source but also as a vital channel for accessing diverse perspectives. Unlike Facebook or Instagram—seen by many Russians as foreign platforms—YouTube enjoys widespread popularity among families and children alike.

Past Resistance Against Blocking YouTube In 2022 when other platforms like Facebook were banned amidst rising censorship efforts, Kremlin resisted calls from hardliners advocating for banning YouTubing understanding potential negative reactions given how integral this medium had become within households nationwide especially those raising kids relying heavily upon educational content available thereon

'Hawkish' Pushes Versus Technocratic Restraint Over Time. Over years debates persisted between hawkish factions pushing harder restrictions versus technocrats opposing such moves citing practical implications until recently President Putin shifted stance aligning more closely alongside proponents arguing necessity curbing perceived threats stemming usage undermining narratives promoted domestically

Government's Plan to Ban Messenger Calls The authorities are considering banning voice calls via messengers, citing the need to combat fraud. This initiative follows previous restrictions on internet-based and international phone calls. If implemented, only traditional phones with explicit permission will allow cross-border communication.

Underlying Motives Beyond Fraud Prevention While framed as a measure against scammers, this move appears aimed at limiting foreign influence and controlling dissent within society. The narrative of widespread fraudulent activities seems exaggerated by the government to justify these actions.

Public Reactions During Crisis Moments Protests often arise during heightened societal tensions like elections or mobilizations when people feel powerless or desperate. Emotional responses lead individuals toward acts such as vandalism in protest settings—an understandable reaction under oppressive conditions where outlets for expression are restricted.

'Siloviki' Influence on Policy Decisions Security forces ('siloviki') increasingly dominate decision-making processes without regard for political consequences or public dissatisfaction. Their approach prioritizes control over addressing underlying issues effectively while dismissing citizen grievances as weakness rather than legitimate concerns.

'Tightening Control Amid Declining Stability' 'Siloviki'-driven policies reflect an attempt by leadership to maintain authority amidst growing instability and failures in governance areas like defense operations abroad and domestically perceived threats from opposition voices escalate internal crackdowns further alienating citizens who previously dismissed claims about authoritarian rule now witnessing its impact firsthand

Putin's Position Amid Elite Tensions Amid worsening conditions for the regime, Putin appears confident publicly but faces underlying elite dissatisfaction. His strategy of tightening control increases reliance on security forces while alienating other elite groups. This creates fear among elites about potential purges and loss of influence, reminiscent of historical authoritarian crackdowns.

Challenges in Managing Ukraine Conflict The ongoing conflict in Donbass is costly and yields limited success, creating a precarious situation for Russia. While there are opportunities to resolve issues diplomatically with figures like Trump, missteps could lead to further isolation or internal discord within Russian leadership circles.

Elite Fears Over Security Apparatus Dominance Elites worry about growing power shifts towards hardliners within the military-security complex under Putin’s rule. The prospect of being targeted by these factions terrifies many more than international consequences such as trials at The Hague. These fears drive compliance but also deepen divisions among influential groups.

'Hawks' Rise Threatens Stability Within System Potential appointments favoring hawkish figures exacerbate tensions within Russia's establishment amid war-driven dynamics shifting power balances internally toward aggressive actors like Sechin loyalists. Many elites prioritize avoiding escalations that might empower these factions over territorial gains from conflicts abroad.

Putin's Shift Towards Military Prioritization The conflict between Russia’s economic bloc and military-industrial elites has become public, with Putin siding with the latter. This decision reflects a prioritization of weapon production over economic stability, jeopardizing the financial base that previously ensured relative steadiness. Despite inflation being a politically sensitive issue affecting most citizens negatively, Putin appears to have chosen militaristic needs over civilian welfare.

Inflation as Political Indicator Amidst War Economy Inflation is seen as an undeniable indicator for ordinary Russians about governmental performance amidst propaganda narratives. While it directly impacts lower-income groups and risks alienating majority support, Putin seems prepared to suppress dissent through measures like censorship rather than addressing rising prices or stabilizing the economy. His choice underscores a focus on sustaining war efforts at any societal cost.

Putin's Balancing Act Between Public Opinion and Propaganda The Kremlin appears to weigh public opinion selectively, maintaining a balance between addressing citizens' concerns and intensifying propaganda efforts. While there is an acknowledgment of the importance of gauging people's views on certain matters like the president’s physical condition, broader political control has shifted from internal politics to other priorities. The strategy involves preventing further decline in support by sustaining some level of engagement with citizens while simultaneously amplifying propagandistic narratives.

Decision-Making Dynamics in Regional Crisis Management Recent statements regarding compensation for Kursk region residents reflect a pragmatic yet unpopular stance by Russian authorities. Decisions seem influenced directly or indirectly by Putin’s perspective, emphasizing dissatisfaction towards those perceived as fleeing responsibilities during crises. This approach highlights centralized decision-making processes where directives are either explicitly communicated or interpreted through intermediaries within the government hierarchy.

The discussion highlights the inadequate support provided to displaced individuals who fled their homes with nothing, receiving meager compensation that fails to reflect their losses. The state portrays itself as caring for its citizens, but actions suggest otherwise. There is a perception of these people being judged harshly by leadership due to not fitting an idealized image of resilience and sacrifice expected from Russian citizens.

Putin's Dependence on Regional Sentiments The well-being of Vladimir Putin is intricately tied to the public sentiment in regions like Kursk. Disappointment has been noted among residents regarding historical events, reflecting a broader dissatisfaction that could impact governance. Ignoring such sentiments might seem viable until they escalate into unmanageable crises, as history with other leaders suggests.

Lessons Unlearned from Overthrown Leaders Despite witnessing examples like Assad and Gaddafi, Putin appears resistant to adapting his approach towards dissent or unrest. His strategy leans toward harsher measures against disapproval rather than addressing underlying issues constructively. While he maneuvers carefully compared to others like Lukashenko or Assad at times, there remains an evident reluctance for substantial change driven by past lessons.

Hope Amid Challenges for the New Year The upcoming year is anticipated to be difficult, bringing both disappointments and uncertainties. However, there remains cautious optimism about progress towards democratization in Russia and potential regime change. Personal well-being, mental health stability, and collective efforts are emphasized as crucial during these times.

Support Through Unity and Action Viewers are encouraged to support independent initiatives like Navalny's store that funds anti-Putin activities while providing meaningful merchandise. Gratitude is expressed toward patrons who enable continued work despite challenges. The importance of unity in facing adversity together with hope for growth within the community is highlighted.